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Les déterminants de l’élections fédérale de 1993

François Rocher

L’élection fédérale de 1993 : le comportement électoral des Québécois

André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil, Henry Brady and Richard Johnston
AbstractThe paper examines the dynamics of the campaign as well as the factors that influenced voting behavior among three blocs of voters: non francophones, francophone sovereignists, and francophone non sovereignists. The analysis is based on survey date collected by the 1993 Canadian Election Study. We show that the primary reason for the success of the Bloc québécois lies in the overwhelming support of the sovereignists. The Bloc was also able to get the support of a fraction of the most nationalist non sovereignists, of younger voters who were dissatisfied with traditional parties, and of those whose personal economic situation had deteriorated. Finally, the Bloc was helped by the personal popularity of its leader, Lucien Bouchard.

La question du chômage et le caractère distinctif de l’électorat québécois au scrutin fédéral de 1993

François-Pierre Gingras, Benoît Gauthier and Frank Graves
AbstractThis article explores the relationship between party support and the most salient campaign issue in the 1993 Federal election. For that purposes, the authors test the hypothesis that party support varies from region to region due to the different attitudes manifested by electors of each region toward the issue of unemployment. Authors note that the methodological approach of contrasting Quebec with the "Rest of Canada" is misleading because it occults significant other regional differences. Authors also find that objective economic conditions (such as being unemployed and rates of unemployment) and subjective economic attitude (such as unemployment insecurity) do not satisfactorily explain variations in individual party support. They conclude that more significant is the association made by voters between a salient campaign issue and the relative positions of political parties, but that this association is hardly related to objective conditions, contrary to the argument developped by several authors.

L’effondrement du parti progressiste-conservateur à l’élection de 1993

Richard Nadeau, Daniel Guérin and Pierre Martin
AbstractThis study seeks to explain the collapse of the Progressive-Conservative Party of Canada in the federal election of 1993 with the help of a simple model of voting behavior. The model is based on the notion that, because of the positioning of the various parties on two "super issues"—the government's role in the economy and the status of Quebec in Canada—the Conservatives were unable to protect the minimal bases of support that would have allowed them to maintain a viable presence in the House of Commons. Our multivariate analysis accounts for economic and constitutional issues, and controls for the evaluation of leaders and parties. We observe that the Tories were squeezed out of the electoral contest by the structure of preferences on the most salient issues of the campaign in Quebec and elsewhere in Canada. This and the profound dissatisfaction toward the government explains the unprecedented collapse of the Conservatives in the 1993 election

Les arguments de causalité et de conséquence dans les débats politiques télévisés : l’exemple du débat des chefs lors des élections canadiennes de 1993

André Gosselin and Gilles Gauthier
AbstractThis study proposes an analysis of causal and consequential arguments used in the political discourse, in order to clarify some of their pragmatics, syntaxics and semantics dimensions, by analysing the television French debate, held during the federal election of October, 1993. Four categories of causal argument are explored: merit, justification, chance and responsability. The six consequential arguments analyzed are the perversity, the futility, the jeopardy, the fatal commitment (or slippery slope), the self-fulfilling prophecy and the overwilling. The authors propose a formalization of these two types of arguments and an example proving its theorical fertility.

La réglementation des sondages au Canada et l’élection de 1993

Guy Lachapelle
AbstractSince the 1993 Federal Election, Canada is among the countries regulating public opinion polls during electoral campaigns. According to article 322.1 of the new Canadian Electoral Act (Bill C-114), the publication of opinion polls is prohibited during the last 72 hours from friday midnight until the closing of polling stations. All federal political parties supported the introduction of this regulation. This paper looks upon the principles behind this provision and argues that the 72 hours blackout represents an acceptable limit to freedom of the press and to the right of citizens of getting accurate information. This article assures also candidates and political parties of a fair treatment by the media. The Canadian provision remains one of the less restrictive among countries regulating public opinion polls.

La guerre des salons : les stratégies publicitaires au référendum sur l’entente de Charlottetown

Denis Monière
This article attempts to demonstrate that money is less a deciding factor in the success or defeat of a referendum than the arguments and issues raised by both sides. The efficacy of political communication depends on its appropriateness regarding both the elector's receptivity and the manner in which the campaign unfolds. This paper is based on an analysis of the publicity strategies incorporated by both the YES and NO committees with specific attention to the following questions. Was there a balance between the broadcasting and distribution of YES and NO campaign publicity? How important was the publicity from the federal government? Was there a noticeable increase in the intensity of the publicity campaigns as voting day approached? Is there evidence suggesting that campaign material and strategy varied according to the mother tongue of the audience? Who were the main spokespeople for both the YES and NO committees? What were the principal arguments advanced by each side?

La juste inégalité. Essai sur la liberté, l’égalité et la démocratie de Robert Dutil, Montréal, Québec/Amérique, 1995, 288 p.

François Blais

Politique étrangère canadienne de André Donneur, Collection Guérin Universitaire, Montréal, Guérin, 1994, 172 p.

Anne-Marie Boissonnault

L’administration publique sous la direction de Gérard Éthier, Sainte-Foy, Pressses de l’Université du Québec, 1994, 546 p.

Gilles Bouchard

La production de l’actualité de Jean Charron, Montréal, Boréal, 1994, 446 p.

Anne-Marie Gingras

Guerre et pouvoir au Salvador de Yvon Grenier, Sainte-Foy, Les Presses de l’Université Laval, 1994, 339 p.

Siobhan Harty

Canada : La voie médiane de Donald G. Lenihan, Gordon Robertson et Roger Tassé, Montréal, Québec/Amérique, 1995, 195 p.

Dimitrios Karmis

Mitterrand et les Françaises. Un rendez-vous manqué de Jane Jenson et Mariette Sineau, Paris, Presses de la fondation nationale de sciences politiques, 1995, 390 p.

Chantal Maillé

Politiques provinciales comparées sous la direction de Jean Crête, Louis Imbeau et Guy Lachapelle, Sainte-Foy, Les Presses de l’Université Laval,1994, 343 p.

Antonia Maioni

Les minorités au Québec de Julien Bauer, Montéal, Boréal, Collection Boréal Express, 1994, 126 p.

Marie McAndrew

Que font-elles en politique? de Manon Tremblay et Réjean Pelletier, Sainte-Foy, Les Presses de l’Université Laval, 1995, 284 p.

Jocelyne Praud

Lire François-Xavier Garneau (1809-1866) : « historien national » de Gérard Bergeron, Québec, Institut québécois de recherche sur la culture, 1994, 244 p.

Ronald Rudin

Les relations internationales de Charles Zorgbibe, Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 5e édition mise à jour, 1994, 617 p.

Jean-François Thibault