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50 ANNÉES DE L’ACTUALITÉ ÉCONOMIQUE : UN FLORILÈGE DE SES MEILLEURS ARTICLES

Steve Ambler, Georges Dionne and Bernard Fortin

CLASSEMENT (PAR ORDRE ALPHABÉTIQUE) DES 14 ARTICLES RETENUS POUR LE NUMÉRO COMMÉMORATIF DE L’ACTUALITÉ ÉCONOMIQUE

Steve Ambler, Georges Dionne and Bernard Fortin

LISTE DES RÉDACTEURS EN CHEF DE L’ACTUALITÉ ÉCONOMIQUE

None

LISTE DES CONFÉRENCES FRANÇOIS-ALBERT ANGERS

None

RAPPORT DU DIRECTEUR DE L’ACTUALITÉ ÉCONOMIQUE

Benoit Dostie

L’économie des organisations : mythes et réalités

Marcel Boyer

SUR L’ESTIMATION D’UN SYSTÈME COMPLET DE DEMANDE SOUS RATIONNEMENTS QUANTITATIFS

Camille Bronsard and Lise Salvas-Bronsard

Inégalité et redistribution du revenu, avec une application au Canada

Jean-Yves Duclos and Martin Tabi
The usefulness of Lorenz curves for analysing the distribution of income is well understood since the influential article of Atkinson (1970). We show in this paper how combining Lorenz and concentration curves for incomes, taxes and transfers allows one to summarise easily and intuitively the impact of government on the distribution of income. We more particularly look at income redistribution and at the vertical and horizontal equity exerted by direct taxes and transfers. By applying "ethical weights" to the distance between the Lorenz and the concentration curves, we obtain summary indices of inequality, redistribution and equity that are easily decomposed additively into separate tax and benefit components. These indices are a generalisation of the well-known Gini index of inequality. The approach is illustrated using micro data on the distribution and the redistribution of income in Canada in the last decade. It confirms the well-known result that the inequality of gross income increased between 1981 and 1990, whereas the inequality of net income fell during the same period. The redistribution exerted by the tax and transfer system increased considerably during that period, at the cost of a higher level of horizontal inequity. Income redistribution is largely generated by the group of transfers related to retirement and old age. As for the redistributive impact of direct taxes, it is quite sensitive to the value of the ethical parameter used in computing the summary indices of equity and redistribution.

TESTS MULTIPLES SIMULÉS ET TESTS DE NORMALITÉ BASÉS SUR PLUSIEURS MOMENTS DANS LES MODÈLES DE RÉGRESSION

Jean-Marie Dufour, Abdeljelil Farhat and Lynda Khalaf
This paper illustrates the usefulness of resampling-based methods in the context of multiple (simultaneous) tests, with emphasis on econometric applications. Economic theory often suggests joint (or simultaneous) hypotheses on econometric models; consequently, the problem of evaluating joint rejection probabilities arises frequently in econometrics and statistics. In this regard, it is well known that ignoring the joint nature of multiple hypotheses may lead to serious test size distortions. Whereas most available multiple test techniques are conservative in the presence of non-independent statistics, our proposed tests provably achieve size control. Specifi cally, we use the Monte-Carlo (MC) test technique to extend several well known combination methods to the non-independent statistics contexts. We fi rst cast the multiple test problem into a unifi ed statistical framework which: (i) serves to show how exact global size control is achieved through the MC test method, and (ii) yields a number of superior tests previously not considered. Secondly, we provide a review of relevant available results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our proposed procedure to the problem of moments-based normality tests. For this problem, we propose an exact variant of Kiefer and Salmon’s (1983) test, and an alternative combination method which exploits the well known Fisher-Pearson procedure. Our simulation study reveals that the latter method seems to correct for the problem of test biases against platikurtic alternatives. In general, our results show that concrete and non-spurious power gains (over standard combination methods) can be achieved through our multiple Monte-Carlo test approach.

La question de l’électricité au Québec durant les années trente

Albert Faucher

L’ÉCONOMIE DE LA PREUVE JUDICIAIRE

Claude Fluet
The economics of judicial proof. This article develops a simple model using the economist’s tool kit to analyze the mechanism of judicial proof. The survey focuses on the notions of burden of proof, legal presumptions, standard of proof, on legal procedure and on the judge’s role during the proceedings. The rules of proof are analyzed from the point of view of litigation costs, judicial error and incentives for socially efficient behavior.

VALORISATION DES INVESTISSEMENTS ULTRA-LONGS ET DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE

Christian Gollier
Do we do enough for the future? This question is related to many different current issues, from the reduction of sovereign debt in Europe, to the pension reform, the fight against climate change, the preservation of natural resources, the level of public investment in infrastructure, or the fiscal treatment of long-term savings for example. Our social responsibility towards future generations is decentralized through the choice of the discount rate, which determines the tradeoff between present sacrifices and future benefits. How should we define the efficient level of long-termism? In this paper, I summarize the most important evolutions in the economic analysis of this question in recent years. Given the strong uncertainties that prevail concerning the long term evolution of our society, I recommend to use a discount rate ranging from 2 times the anticipated growth rate of consumption for short time horizons, going down to 1 % for time horizons above 100 years. The systematic risk premium should also have a term structure, starting at around 1 % for short maturities to 3 % for extra-long ones.

Ajustement macroéconomique aux technologies multi-usages

Peter Howitt and Philippe Aghion
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects that follow from the introduction of what Bresnahan and Trajtenberg have called a "general-purpose technology" (GPT), such as the computer. The analysis is based on the idea that a new GPT accelerates the pace of technological change by spawning a wave of secondary innovations aimed at improving upon and realizing the potential of the original GPT. The paper analyzes the channels through which such an increase in the pace of technological change might reduce the measured level of economic activity for some period before it ultimately brings the economy to a higher growth path. Two such channels are capital-obsolescence and the failure to measure knowledge-investment in the national accounts. A simple endogenous growth model that was constructed and calibrated to the US economy, predicts that capital-obsolescence is the more significant of the two channels, and that through this channel, output can fall below its no-shock path for almost 3 decades after the introduction of a new GPT.

Nouvelles formes de réglementation

Jean-Jacques Laffont

Choix occupationnels et offre de travail lorsque les salaires sont fonction des heures travaillées

Thomas Lemieux
This paper develops an econometric model of the decision to work in one or two different occupations when wages depend on hours of work. The model is identified using a basic principle of demand theory with rationing constraints which does not require standard exclusion restrictions. The econometric approach is applied to the decision of working in the formal and in the informal sector. The estimates suggest standard labor supply elasticities of the order of one. The estimates also suggest that the informal sector wage declines as hours worked in that sector increase, while the opposite is true in the formal sector.

WILD CLUSTER BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

James G. MacKinnon
Confidence intervals based on cluster-robust covariance matrices can be constructed in many ways. In addition to conventional intervals obtained by inverting Wald (t) tests, the paper studies intervals obtained by inverting LM tests, studentized bootstrap intervals based on the wild cluster bootstrap, and restricted bootstrap intervals obtained by inverting bootstrap Wald and LM tests. It also studies the choice of an auxiliary distribution for the wild bootstrap, a modified covariance matrix based on transforming the residuals that was proposed some years ago, and new wild bootstrap procedures based on the same idea. Some procedures perform extraordinarily well even with the number of clusters is small.

INSTITUTIONS ET SCOLARITÉ : LE CAS DES FRANCOPHONES AU QUÉBEC VS LES AMÉRICAINS D’ORIGINE CANADIENNE-FRANÇAISE

Daniel Parent
Environ un million de Canadiens français ont émigré vers les États-Unis entre 1865 et 1930, s’établissant majoritairement dans les États de la Nouvelle-Angleterre. À l’aide de données de recensements américains et canadiens, cette étude examine comment la scolarité et la fréquentation scolaire de leurs descendants se comparent avec ceux de Québécois francophones du même âge. Les données des recensements canadien de 1971 et américain de 1970 nous révèlent que les résidents natifs de la Nouvelle-Angleterre dont la langue maternelle était le français ont profité d’un avantage considérable sur le plan de la scolarité. J’attribue cet écart important à leur accès au système public d’éducation des États-Unis, qui n’avait pas d’équivalent au Québec jusqu’à la fin des années soixante. Ce résultat est encore plus remarquable étant donné la sélection négative présumée en regard de ceux qui quittaient le Québec et le fait que les Franco-Américains réussissaient à reproduire relativement bien les institutions d’enseignement québécoises. En examinant les recensements canadien de 2000 et américain de 2001, on constate que l’écart s’est considérablement résorbé chez les plus jeunes. En fait, contrairement à ce qui est observé en 1971, les jeunes Québécois en 2001 avaient à peu près la même scolarité et étaient au moins aussi susceptibles d’avoir atteint un niveau d’études postsecondaire que les Franco-Américains. Toutefois, ils accusent toujours un retard lorsqu’il s’agit de détenir au moins un baccalauréat. Ce renversement partiel reflète l’effet du « traitement correctif » par lequel le Québec a apporté des changements profonds à ses institutions d’enseignement, particulièrement au niveau postsecondaire, au milieu et à la fin des années soixante.

L’estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples

Pierre Perron
This paper considers the problem of estimation in the linear regression model with multiple structural changes. We first survey the class of models analyzed by Bai and Perron (1996) and some of their asymptotic results. We then discuss in greater details a numerical algorithm, based on the principle of dynamic programming, that permits obtaining estimates of the break dates very efficiently even if there is a large number of changes. We also discuss issues related to the estimation of the number of breaks using information criteria. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the merits and drawbacks of such procedures. Finally, some empirical examples highlight the practical importance of our results.

L’ÉCONOMÉTRIE DES CONTRATS : LE RÔLE DES ARCHIVES DE PAIE, DES EXPÉRIENCES ET DES MODÈLES ÉCONOMIQUES

Bruce Shearer